Why Fred Thompson won't unite the GOP

So, he's all but in. Fred Thompson is going to run for president...maybe. He announced his exploratory committee last week, and the actor-turned-politician-turned-actor is already a major force in the race, matching Rudy Giuliani's showing in the current Rasmussen poll. Thompson's visibility from Law & Order, coupled with his effective campaigning skills and "tough" demeanor, have already made him the choice of many a Republican. He has been repeatedly referred to as Reaganesque and many Republicans hold out hope that he will be able to reunite the GOP. His Senate tenure reveals a generally conservative voting record, and he has been visible in some other ways as well, such as the John Roberts confirmation. With three frontrunners that, for various reasons, are supposedly unacceptable to the base, the right is no longer even bothering to try to find the best, most qualified candidate (Mike Huckabee, who already happens to be running) and go instead to Hollywood glitz in a rather pathetic attempt to mine Reagan nostalgia yet again. Only this time, it isn't going to work.

The reason for this is simple: immigration. Despite the unified showing among all of the GOP candidates (minus John McCain) opposing the recent Kennedy-McCain immigration bill, there is a great deal of conflict among Republicans regarding this issue, and the intramural squabble is unlikely to be resolved by the entry of a new candidate who, like all the others, opposed the bill. The conflict is largely among the conservative base, who loathe the very notion of amnesty and essentially want to build a fence and close the borders, as opposed to the party's more moderate wing and business Republicans, who see the strategic value of comprehensive reform to usher in Latinos to the GOP and feel that the base is simply xenophobic and ignorant of the economics of the immigration debate. This is the rare tussle among Republicans, who are usually more disciplined about these things, and it is the even more rare fight that pits the Republican elites (such as Bush) against his most ardent supporters. To say this is a mere disagreement is to be guilty of quite an understatement: what we have here is nothing less than a full-blown civil war between two increasingly intractable factions of the GOP, and although the immigration bill is gone for now, the issue will be back. What's really extraordinary are the types of people turning on the President right now. Administration stalwarts like Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn, who I cannot remember otherwise opposing Bush in any way, have more or less declared war on the Bush plan, and in a party where discipline and obedience are prized attributes, this development is a surprising one.

So, this is the environment into which Thompson enters: two sides to the immigration debate, with each growing increasingly less respectful and more contemptuous of the other. One might think that nominating an anti-immigration candidate might smooth over problems with the base, but that approach comes with a price. The pro-immigration elements of the Republican Party really want this legislation to pass, as it will mean more Latino immigrants (through a guest worker program), which means smaller payrolls. If it doesn't, it's not inconceivable that the pro-comprehensive forces might decide to back the Democrat, as the Dem frontrunners are generally friendly to their kind of immigration policies. So much for reuniting the Republicans.

In any event, I find it difficult to see just how Thompson is supposed to reunite the GOP. Despite having a level of folksy, down-home charm, the man has yet to articulate ideas on many current issues. Even though he's popular now, there's no reason to believe that his solidly conservative outlook will distinguish him from all the other solid conservatives in the race. And his acting career is hardly a substitute for executive experience. He's a Senator, and a former one at that. He will undoubtedly try to play the outsider card, although that dog simply won't hunt for Thompson. Eight years in the Senate, coupled with more as a lawyer and lobbyist in D.C., makes him one of the biggest insiders in the race.

Ultimately, while Fred Thompson might very well be up to the task of reuniting the Republican Party, there is no evidence up to this point that he will be able to do so. Too bad for the Republicans, who have hitched their hopes to this guy in a way which can only be described as irrational.

P. S. I realize I've written a fair amount about Fred Thompson in recent days. I'll stop writing about the man...for now.

One week

It has been about a week since I started this blog, and it's been quite a bit of fun for me so far. I've enjoyed reading the (sparse) comments left so far...please leave some if you wish. Chances are that I'll be able to engage you personally if you do.

I recently finished Season 2 of 24 from Netflix. I think I've come to the realization that, despite the inevitable urge, 24 is not a show that goes well together if you watch a bunch of them back to back. Still, it's generally a pretty good show, and while it goes overboard on the torture (part of the reason why I liked Season 1 so much--not as much of that), it's not as easily reductive as a right-wing show as people would have you believe. I thought the second season was actually a pretty clear denunciation of Bush's post-9/11 foreign policy, and the allegory fit pretty well. War fought for the purpose of national self-esteem. What a disgrace.

Oh yeah, and remember the immortal words of Adm. Fred Thompson from The Hunt for Red October, "The Russians, son, don't take a dump without a plan." Words to live by!

Fred Thompson is crazy

Thanks to Andrew Sullivan for this quote. Conservatives love to link their pet issues with one another: immigration to terrorism, as in this example. My favorite was a few weeks ago, when some right-wing blog tried to tie abortion to immigration (with laughable results).

Sullivan's analysis is also dead on, and is far more succinct than anything I could write. Anyone who thinks this actor is a viable leader needs to read his post.

P. S. He used to be pro-choice, too.

P. P. S. He's not Reaganesque!!! Reagan had a clearly-defined philosophy and he had a record, as well as executive experience. His ideas were bold for his time, but he was certainly qualified for the nation's top job. Thompson had eight indifferent years in the Senate, and a little bit of time as a government lawyer before that. That is, unless you count lobbyist-for-hire as government experience, which I don't. He stands for the same generic conservatism as all the other Republican candidates (save Ron Paul) and he has no ideas to speak of. While H. L. Mencken might compliment him for that (albeit backhandedly, like he did with Calvin Coolidge), I'd just as soon know the precise ways in which he would like to screw up our country is all.

P. P. P. S. Why are Republicans so enthralled with "strong leadership"? It's not even so much about strength, but the appearance of strength. Have these conservatives who see Thompson as tough considered that he his toughness might very well be an act, considering he is an actor!

Freddie!

Fred Thompson is running for President. Good, because it's high time the glitz and glamor of showbiz and the gravity and importance of government finally meet.

What to say about the man? Has there ever been such a blank slate of a person in real life? That is undoubtedly why he is being talked up among conservatives as positively as he is: at least, unlike the other three major candidates, they can project their aspirations onto him, and since he's not an official candidate, he doesn't have to answer the tough questions on immigration and whatnot. Genius. Maybe John McCain should consider not running for President. I know I wish Hillary Clinton would.

Ultimately, Fred Thompson is exactly the kind of empty suit that Democrats are often accused of being. He's a dull, lazy hulk of a man with less than a decade of political experience under his belt. He has no ideas or demonstrable worldview. He is frequently referred to as "Reaganesque", presumably because he is an actor. The thing about it is that Reagan had actually been a governor and actually had ideas, neither of which is true for Thompson. Furthermore, Thompson is evidence of how pathetic the G. O. P. has gotten--instead of caring about competence, now they just care about "toughness", regardless whether or not that toughness is actually authentic. It's the only reason Giuliani has a shot--really, his overheated military rhetoric is beginning to scare me--is Mussolini his idol? Too bad that his act will be eaten up by independent-voting saps all around the country because he's pro-choice. But he'll make us safe! Just like Bush did! Even Hillary Clinton agrees!

Oh, but Freddie's folksy! And he's got the voice! And he's a good campaigner! Please. This guy is trouble for the GOP. He doesn't seem to want to campaign at all--he just wants to release videos and have people blog on his website. Unless he's got some sort of brilliant strategy for using the web as it's never used before, I can guarantee you that his website sounds exactly like all the other candidates' will be like. Which is to say, it won't stand out.

Has anyone ever even heard of flavor of the month?

Looking on the bright side, it will remove the experience issue from the table should he and Obama win their parties' respective nominations, and that issue usually helps Republicans. It just scares me that he could potentially win. I would hope that people have had their fill on intellectually lazy clods in the White House who will just do whatever their advisers tell them to do.