About Jedi Mind Tricks

As I've maintained before, conservatism today is less a philosophy and more a tribe united by various cultural markers. That Obama is deftly manipulating the hive mentality shows a superior awareness of his enemy. Man knows his Sun Tzu.

I wonder how much further this can go. Letting Limbaugh set the terms of the opposition will prove disastrous to the Republicans, but I wonder whether you couldn't ratchet it up a bit. I think Obama ought to introduce an immigration bill along the lines of McCain-Kennedy. With Limbaugh running things the reaction will be overheated and likely further poison the well of GOP minority outreach. It will shatter the GOP for some time. Not that he needs my help...

The reports of immigration reform's death are not greatly exaggerated

It's all over. Bush's legacy is denied. Iran, you are so screwed...

Immigration reform: dead?

Is immigration reform dead in the Senate? North Dakota Senator Byron Dorgan introduced what Mickey Kaus has referred to as the killer amendment (i.e. ending the guest worker program after a period of time), and clearly the anti-immigration Republicans feel the same way, since a few have signed on, like Jim DeMint of South Carolina, who at least was candid about why he voted for the amendment.

Is this amendment a killer? Quite possibly. It will send Republicans scurrying, might potentially get a presidential veto, and it might break the Democrats' resolve to pass this wildly unpopular bill through if they aren't going to be able to share the blame with Republicans. It isn't going to help this Congress's reputation for being do-nothing, but in this case, a plurality of voters prefer the "do-nothing" approach.

I guess it depends on how bad Pelosi wants to bring Hispanics into the Democratic Party, and how hard she feels she has to work on it. My reading at this point is that she isn't going to have to try too hard. The GOP has been the producer of so much anti-immigrant rancor in recent times that Hispanics are probably already in the clutches of the Democrats for quite some time, and actually getting the bill passed isn't necessary at this point. From a tactical point of view, this bill has become so contentious and so identified with Bush that getting it passed might not even hurt the Democrats too much in 2008--it might just hurt the Republicans, and it will hurt much more if it gets passed. Then, it becomes like NAFTA is for the Democrats, only way angrier.

Despite the temptation, I think that Pelosi and Reid should let the bill fold for now. You can always bring it back up later--like in September, when that Iraq status report is going to be due...

What if immigration reform just went away?

Wouldn't Bush and his party, respectively, take the biggest pastings on this issue should no bill be put forward? Bush would look bad--really bad. He has wrapped himself up in this cause, and he is slowly beginning to lose support amongst his most ardent anti-immigration supporters. The GOP will have shown Latinos exactly why they should vote Democrat for the rest of their lives (well, at least one reason why...), which puts them at a demographic disadvantage in the Southwest for the next generation. Texas and Arizona, for example, are majority minority, and if suddenly they were to become purple (or even blue) states, along with Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, the GOP would be out of the White House for a generation. Hence Bush's (and Rove's) determination to do this and make sure that Bush gets credit for doing it, because otherwise the credit goes to Pelosi. Unfortunately for Bush, his party isn't going to give him any leeway on this, and he's going to face trouble in September when the war issue comes around again because of his immigration push.

Note to Bush: your party will not be able to attract Latino support with the current level of vitriol they display for Hispanic immigrants. You might as well let your crappy bill fold. Not that I'd really mind your being politically neutered for the next two years.

Note to Pelosi: you and Harry Reid draw this bill out as long as humanly possible. It's strategy so that when Iraq comes up again, Bush's base support is so low, you'll see dozens of GOP defections on the war.

Of course, if the bill does pass, it would create an irreconcilable rift within the GOP between the business and social conservatives, which would have immense consequences in 2008. McCain would be finished if his bill actually passed--if it doesn't, he might be able to eke it out. Giuliani might benefit, since he recently denounced the bill. I can forsee some business conservatives supporting the Democrats in 2008 if the GOP picks someone who really opposes immigration reform (i.e. Freddie), and I can see some social conservatives bolting for a third party anti-immigration candidate (e.g. Tancredo) if a pro-comprehensive guy gets the nomination (I think it's just McCain at this point). Finally, a GOP more bitterly divided than the Democrats are. I smell an opportunity!