Think about it. While Arizona's immigration law will probably energize Arizona's right wing, the GOP's sheer panic at the implications of this issue will probably keep them from really capitalizing on it. Go check out the responses from Rubio, Whitman, et al. Even Tancredo's against it, which leaves how much room to the right to support it, really? The bill will probably be highly controversial with the general public until it actually has to be enforced, at which point I fully expect it will become a real disgrace.
Arizona will probably not be on too many voters' minds until that occurs. It will, however, be on the forefront of the mind of every single Hispanic voter in November. This scary piece of garbage is going to make the Dems' Latino outreach easy as pie. All they're going to have to do is say that a vote for Republicans is a vote to turn your state into another Arizona, and not turning out makes it that much easier. I'm guessing the Dems pull in the sort of numerical support among Hispanics in 2010 that they usually get from Black voters, and those Senate races where the GOP has a real shot in states that contain heavy Hispanic communities--namely Illinois, California, Nevada, and Colorado--will start to slip out of reach, while states like Arizona and Florida become real battlefields. And if the Republicans' response to this whole thing holds consistent, they just won't be able to deal with it.
In the end, I suspect the law getting struck down by a court challenge would probably be win-win for most parties involved, but I agree with Kos--this one's going to leave a mark. But how lucky have the Dems been this year? I mean, between Anthem jacking up insurance rates right when Obama retrenches on health care, Goldman being sued for fraud right before FinReg heats up, and now Arizona's disgrace. This just isn't the GOP's year.
The Man, The Myth, The Bio
- East Bay, California, United States
- Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.