Wednesday, December 12, 2007

A GOP Brokered Convention?

Much speculation about a possible brokered GOP convention. Nobody can win, can they? They all have big-time flaws, and yet somebody has to win, right? Ezra Klein asks who the GOP dream team would be, and I must confess that I'm not too sure.

After all, we all know the money-cons control the GOP, and they will pick Giuliani if it goes to a convention since he's shown the most willingness to embrace the supply-side (read: give more to the rich) cause, without the questions of a former Rockefeller Republican like Romney, or a former anti-supply sider like McCain. They both pay homage at the tomb of Laffer now, but in the past...it would seem that the party of the religious right is ironically somewhat less than enthused at having converts (or maybe it is the insincerity that bugs them, who knows?). Despite his social views, Rudy comes closest to being a complete conservative (aside from the nonviable McCain), as his economic and foreign policies appeal to the kahunas of the GOP. But couldn't they get the whole package somewhere? Someone whose name rhymes with Jeff Tush?

I actually don't think a Jeb Bush/Dick Cheney ticket would be too far from the GOP elites' ideal ticket, but it would be lucky to get 40% of the vote at this point. Cheney's circle of approval is so small it probably rivals his enemy/role model Ahmadinejad's, and aside from being the brother of one of the least successful and least popular presidents in history, Jeb's got the dynasty thing to worry about, as well as Terri Schiavo and some messy family history in his own shop. Not that that will necessarily matter, as George's awful children didn't seem to bother the sociocons all that much. It's interesting that the sociocons don't really seem to care much about whether or not their leaders are actually good family men, just that they have families with a mommy and a daddy. And that they're Republicans. As long as the second part holds, the first is less important.

I don't think it would matter, because a brokered GOP convention would mean months without a frontrunner while the Democrats will probably settle on one reasonably quickly, as there are only two real options. The media would run "Republicans in Disarray" articles for months, and while it would be advantageous for the GOP in the sense that they could take potshots at the Dem nominee for months and not worry about getting both barrels, necessarily, a convention that returned a candidate voted for by noone would be seen as illegitimate, and only two months to run as the nominee in the general election seems like a very short time in which to correct a potential scandal. It could be advantageous to the GOP inasmuch as it keeps whoever the eventual nominee is from getting too stale, and that could mean a bigger bump out of the nominating convention, but what if the convention gets ugly? What if there are floor fights, or possibly even walkouts? I just don't see how the Republicans could possibly win if the Democrats effectively pick their guy/gal on February 5, but the Republicans have no standard-bearer until September 2. As I indicated, it could help the Republicans in that they could all criticize Obama or Hillary in unison for seven months, but they could all just attack each other during that time as well, and Obama or Hillary could argue that the GOP has effectively cracked up. And that would just about be right.

The Man, The Myth, The Bio

East Bay, California, United States
Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.