Reihan Salam's a smart guy, but I don't find his signs of a Republican revival persuasive. It feels like a post that was written this time last week, before Obama's trip and corresponding poll bounce in Gallup (7 points) and Rasmussen (6 points). The New Hampshire Senate race has ebbed and flowed, but Jeanne Shaheen has always been on top and saying that the race is changing based on solely one poll is a bit, shall we say, optimistic. One must always take a Rasmussen poll with a grain of salt when it contravenes conventional wisdom and shows a Republican far closer than any other poll--they kept showing Michael Steele within a few points of Ben Cardin in the 2006 Maryland Senate Race while Steele lost by ten points. Now, it is true that those Q state polls are good news for McCain, but these polls predate Obama's trip bounce and they all contravene prior poll results. Reihan might be right, but this is awfully thin gruel. To be perfectly fair, though, he is identifying "early stirrings" so fine.
As for the rest, I think energy is a big issue, but I don't think that it's necessarily a winner for McCain, as Obama narrowly edges him on this issue. That same data shows that Obama only narrowly leads McCain on the economy, perhaps because of the drilling issue, which indicates only that Obama has more work to do. And while people are more optimistic about the War on Terror and the Iraq War, I don't see this as being so much due to Republican policies as to military professionals--at least, that's how it's perceived as Bush is still roundly hated despite things getting better. He's not getting the credit, and while the Republicans are doing better on these issues than they were a year ago it's not overwhelming.
So, once again, Reihan might be right, but I have some doubts. And I think it'll take until the convention before we can get a clear view of the dynamic for this fall.
