I wonder just how likely it is that Joe Lieberman actually gets the GOP VP nod. This Patrick Ruffini post (via Ezra Klein) offers some tepid support for the idea, though most of the right-leaning commenters tend not to see the wisdom in this course of action.
I think they're right. Sure, McCain will be able to look more "mavericky" but he's going to be saddled with a VP who he generally disagrees with on most policy issues, from abortion on down to labor rights. It's a bad call because Iraq is receding as an issue as both parties move toward timelines, and Lieberman's major defection was about Iraq. I get the sense that, post-Bush, most people aren't looking for an administration that cavalierly gets America into foreign policy adventures. On the other hand, Obama might seem a bit untested on the foreign policy front. Selecting Biden as VP might help there...it will surely help in obviating some of the media's questioning of that experience. But is Lieberman really going to be able to argue that McCain's approach to the economy is superior? How about health care?
Ruffini gets some of the benefits right, but he misses the real downsides: McCain's campaign would become all Iraq, all the time, at a time when the economy is becoming a more pressing concern. There would be base problems. And there's another critical flaw in his reasoning: he says that Lieberman switching parties and becoming a full-on Republican would flip Senate control. He also says that Lieberman's not being a Republican makes him preferable to, say, Tom Ridge because Lieberman wouldn't seek the presidency on his own and it wouldn't be a signal to pro-lifers that the GOP is abandoning the pro-life plank. But here's the question: how on Earth can Lieberman both be and not be a Republican if he were McCain's VP candidate? Maybe if Lieberman remains an independent there'd be less base trouble, but if he formally becomes a member of the GOP why should the base feel less threatened than if Tom Ridge were the nominee? Yes, Lieberman will be 70 in four years and 74 in eight, but McCain's 72 and that attracts nary a mention in the press. If I were an ardent pro-lifer I would be worried.
Picking Joe Lieberman as veep would be a disastrous choice for John McCain. It would be akin to George W. Bush having picked Al Gonzales as his VP. Lieberman is more qualified than Al G, but it would be a self-indulgent pick that probably wouldn't help him win, and would probably cause the GOP to split up in the near future if he doesn't. Not that I don't like any of those things, but let's not forget that a McCain defeat would undoubtedly have several effects, some good, some bad, but the theocon wing would almost certainly be strengthened. James Dobson could claim he was right about McCain. And if he had base issues after picking Lieberman he'd have even more evidence to marshal. I want McCain to lose, but I don't want Dobson's microphone getting any bigger.
So, Senator McCain, for the love of God don't pick Joe Lieberman!
