I really do believe this. There has been some shadiness in Dodd's dealings, certainly, and it would probably be better if the Democrats promoted one of Connecticut's hungry young congressional members to the job instead of going for another Dodd term, but honestly, if Simmons is only up by five points now, with the election more than a year from now, my guess is that most Democrats will come home before then. I could be wrong, but my guess is that next year's elections won't be catastrophic to Democrats. Sure, they'll lose a few house seats, but I'm guessing there'll be a three-seat Dem pickup in the Senate. Ohio and Missouri are examples of races where the Democrats just have better candidates and I think are more likely to win than not, and New Hampshire seems like it will eventually wind up in the Democrats' hands, especially if John Sununu is right and Ayotte is archconservative. I'm a little less certain on this, as NH did recently have two rather conservative senators, but the state is changing and I think when things start going in earnest it will be difficult for a conservative to hold it. North Carolina is possible for the Dems--that particular seat has not seen a single person holding it re-elected for decades--and I just don't see New York or Delaware putting Republicans in office in this sort of climate. I'm guessing that the Democrats will drop either Blanche Lincoln or Harry Reid, perhaps both, but if the GOP really wanted to take down the latter, they'd run the popular moderate former governor, Kenny Guinn. I honestly wouldn't be too sad to see Reid go, as Democrats are apparently loathe to drop him as their Senate leader, and he's not exactly got the right skill set for the job. At least a Reid loss would pave the way for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer*, who does seem to have the right skill set for the job, I think, as well as the undying gratitude of about 1/4 of the Democratic Caucus for basically getting them elected.
*Assuming it doesn't pass to Dick Durbin, because apparently Democrats are positively aristocratic when it comes to these sorts of things (see Reid himself), but Durbin doesn't really seem cut out for the leadership either and might stand aside and stay in his current job. Of course, having Schumer as the Democrats' whip is an exciting possibility as well...
The Man, The Myth, The Bio
- East Bay, California, United States
- Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.