it's paradoxical, I know.
But here's what I'm saying--right now, the RCP average in Pennsylvania shows Obama down by about six percentage points. Considering that that's about one-third of what Clinton's lead was about two weeks ago, and considering that the primary is still two-and-a-half weeks away (ugh!) this has got to be bad news for the Clintons.
Still, Pennsylvania is very favorable territory for the Clintons. Lots of old folks, lots of Reagan Democrats, and a fair amount of Latinos. She might just rebound in the state. She's done it before.
My worry is that Obama's recent success in closing the gap in PA will raise expectations such that a narrow Clinton win of a point or two will be treated as some great success, when it will actually be an unbelievable comeback by Obama. Remember how Clinton was back in the game after Texas and Ohio, despite actually losing the delegate count in Texas? Of course, Clinton has to win virtually every primary from here on out, and she's not going to do that, especially not with the rather lame retread of her "classic" 3 a.m. ad. What's next, "It's 3 a.m., and a phone in the White House is ringing. But this time, the call is about streamlining federal bureaucracy and preserving the solvency of our commitments to the Greatest Generation, viz. Social Security." Where's the SNL parody of this? Come on, a Bill Clinton-narrated short about a 3 a.m. call would be only too easy for those guys. Let's get this done! This is already a joke and I want it formalized as such!
There's no denying that an Obama win in PA ends this thing, and I sincerely hope he pulls it off. I'm cautiously optimistic.
