Which one indeed? I think it depends on what Democrats themselves want. If we want the best opportunity to hold the White House, I think the answer to my question has to be Sarah Palin. Her "colorful" past might well yield some more interesting anecdotes--just how pally was she with Ted Stevens?--and her "maverick" reform-oriented image will not likely survive a GOP primary race. This is not to mention that she wears poorly with time and can't take the pressure that comes with the nearly two years that presidential campaigns take these days. She barely lasted a few weeks in 2008 before she became an incoherent babbler with Katie Couric. How's she going to be in November 2011, with Mitt Romney running attack ads about aerial wolf shooting in Iowa and New Hampshire? She'd likely suffer a meltdown, and even if she won the nomination she's not terribly popular with the electorate and not particularly knowledgeable about policy. So she'd be unlikely to win, and Palin stands as a perfect example of the Peter Principle--had McCain not picked her, she would probably have made a fine regional politician and possibly a reform-oriented voice within the GOP, though not likely a national candidate. Oh well.
So Palin is the option if Democrats want to win. What's a step down from that? Well, I think that Florida Governor Charlie Crist is probably the Republican that Democrats would be most able to live with. Crist, unlike most of his comrades in the party of Rove, is scrupulously honest and principled. He's conservative, but he knows how to appeal to the center while not ceding the right. Crist would be a good candidate for a "Sam's Club Republican" sort of philosophy, which is a bit more generous to the middle and working classes than classical conservatism is. Crist is phenomenally popular in Florida, which I hear is kind of important for presidential candidates to win. Crist would likely govern from the center and win over much of the public in the process, while moving Republicans into sensible territory on economics and the environment, unless the Club for Growth gets to him first. Of all the plausible Republican candidates, Crist would likely be the most palatable to Democrats should he win in 2012. Whether that is likely, who's to say, though I suspect it won't matter as President Obama will probably win a second term unless he ushers in a new great depression. Republicans might think he can easily be ousted, but they probably thought that in 1936 as well when Alf Landon managed a whopping eight electoral votes against FDR. (Curiously, for all the Republicans' talk about how the New Deal didn't work, it sure seemed like people wanted him to keep enacting those policies since they voted him in more than a few times.)
But I know who I'd prefer the Republicans to nominate most of all: Mike Huckabee. That's right. Huck's probably going to run, and while I definitely don't want him to be president I think that putting him in charge as party leader would probably be best for the liberal order. This does not hold true on social issues, but Huckabee has clearly little love for his party's establishment, and the feeling is evidently mutual. If Huck were able to lead a movement against the assorted neocons and supply-siders running the store of the Grand Old Party, and instead reorient the party toward realism and fiscal responsibility of the Eisenhower style (and perhaps a hint of social justice along the way), then it is hard to see how liberal goals in many areas wouldn't be easier to achieve. Now, I am assuming Huckabee is a realist because of the article he wrote in Foreign Affairs which gave broad hints at this sort of thing. I'm going a bit more blind on economics because of his idiot FairTax idea, which he should scrap immediately. His record in Arkansas suggested a lack of Norquistian ideology on economics, and a party that was honestly worried about spending would be a good addition to the country. Honestly, despite the religious craziness I wouldn't be as averse to a Republican party with that sort of configuration--social conservatism, economic moderation, foreign policy realism. And if Huck could get the conservatives to abandon their Nixonian deception, vote caging, etc., then so much the better. He does seem to have a spot of integrity at times. I'm unsure as to whether he stands a chance--most libs dislike him and are afraid that the folksy shtick will work again like it did for Bush (to be fair, Huckabee is much more charming than Dubya ever was), but I've talked to hard-core, dyed-in-the-wool liberals who actually kinda like Huckabee. If he can make these folks like him he's probably got a future in politics. Still, he's not exactly in the mainstream on the social issues, though I suspect he could tweak the rhetoric quite a bit to make it all more palatable. The man is nothing if not a talker.
Honestly, though, it seems as though remaining Republicans are going to be looking for a "pure" conservative, so I doubt very much that Crist and Huckabee are going to fit that model. Honestly, Palin shouldn't be considered a conservative, but because she's so adept at manipulating culture war grievances she might well win the nomination. It'll probably be some wingnut Southern gov, like Haley Barbour or Mark Sanford or Bobby Jindal. And, frankly, none of those guys are presidents. I know Republicans are giddy about Jindal, but really. Really. I've seen him on television and he comes off as a nice guy--he has a nerdy vibe about him, which isn't too bad a thing to have in a party that has taken such an anti-intellectual tack of late. But Jindal isn't particularly magnetic or appealing--he has all the charisma of a high school chemistry teacher. Which, as I said, isn't the worst thing in the world--it's comforting in a way--but there are certain intangibles one looks for in a president and I'm not sure Jindal has them. Plus, I think the Catholic factor is not inconsiderable. As someone who grew up in an evangelical household I can assure you that the religious right will be keenly aware of that fact (many of them don't believe that Catholics are saved), and while it wouldn't be as much a dealbreaker as Mitt Romney's Mormonism it won't be trivial. Then again, they may just choose to ignore it, though the exorcism story will raise eyebrows. I doubt his race will be much of a problem, as even the most hardened racists will feel the need, when in polite society, to point out a few minority members that they like. Jindal could well fit that role for the, um, less progressed part of the Republicans' southern rump. If Jindal can win in David Duke's backyard he clearly can transcend the racial issues, so they likely won't be a factor. Jindal says he isn't running for now, but they all say that at this point, don't they? I seem to recall a certain freshman senator from Illinois pledging to serve a full term in 2005.
