Friday, July 31, 2009

Revised timeline

Yeah, so I proposed The Timeline some time ago, which you can find by clicking on the link below. Basically, it was how I thought the next eight years would turn out. So far, things are more or less on track, but I think I might have to revisit one aspect: Sarah Palin getting the Republican nomination. I don't think it's going to happen. I must admit that I never expected her to flame out so rapidly. Now that she has negative approval ratings in her state, I think it's going to be very difficult for her even to get the nomination. My guess is that she'll have a chat show or something similar. She has nothing to build on, nowhere to go. People with 40/53 numbers don't get elected to anything. If she can't even be counted on to carry her home state she's a goner.

At this point, my guess is that Huckabee is the prohibitive favorite, though I don't think he'll win, thanks to taking economic positions that happen to be popular with actual people instead of D.C. elites. I once thought that Huckabee could be a real reformer in the GOP--someone who could cultivate his own following, independent of the party apparatus, and kick out the Club for Growthers and the neocons, but it's become clear that Huckabee is not particularly principled, and is instead something of a suck-up who will adjust his positions if he has a reasonable expectation of power. Romney and Jindal have religious problems of different sorts with the base, and I don't think Jeb will run. I think the GOP might go uncharacteristic and pick a dark horse. Future New Jersey Governor Chris Christie seems like someone promising, but perhaps too sane. Jim DeMint, on the other hand, strikes me as a real contender for the nomination.

The Man, The Myth, The Bio

East Bay, California, United States
Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.