Sullivan asks, "What would be worse for the GOP - a Hoffman or Owens victory?"
Probably a Hoffman victory. Owens winning would exacerbate intramural Republican tensions and lead to some recriminations, but the same dynamics would probably continue. Hoffman winning would mean that he'd have to defend the seat next time around, presumably as a Republican. Such a race will cost lots of money and probably won't be won. Hoffman doesn't know the district, is too far to the right for the district, and seems more interested in becoming a conservative firebrand than an attentive representative. And next time, he won't have the advantage of a split in the moderate vote. But the broader implications of this race will be enormous. Club for Growth will have a very real scalp to hang on its wall, and their power will increase immensely. Their threats to enter contests will be taken much more seriously by Republicans, and the end result will be that representatives will become more inclined not to work with President Obama or engage at all on substantive issues. Ever wonder how AIPAC became such a powerhouse? It started very similarly, actually...
This is, quite simply, a power play. The Club will probably push the GOP those last few inches over the cliff in the process of taking over the party, as now is seeming more likely since they've set themselves up as the financial wing of the Tea Party movement. One wonders why they're not spending money to defeat moderate Democrats in winnable seats instead of shrinking the GOP one seat at a time. It doesn't make any sense whatsoever for a minority party to initiate ideological purges--when you're down like that, you need all the help you can get. All I can think of as an explanation is Milton--"Better to reign in hell than serve in heaven." My guess is that the Club's theory of Republican revitalization is something of an underpants gnomes problem.
