Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Clinton's out

So, it looks like it might finally be over...Clinton is a smart woman, and I think she had to have realized that making Obama distrustful of her motives is probably not a good way to audition for a job that's, like, 99.9999999% trust.

For the record, I'm not big on the unity idea. Clinton is a plausible president but she'll alienate as many voters as she brings, and most of the ones she brings will end up voting for Obama anyhow. She's an obstacle to the whole "break with the past" motif. Noah Millman's article lays the case out compellingly:
The VP pick should, ideally, accomplish several, if not all, of the following objectives: reinforce the campaign narrative; strengthen the image of the nominee; bring in a valuable organization for GOTV or fundraising; win over an otherwise difficult-to-win constituency; retain a trusted counsellor; anoint an heir apparent.

A Clinton pick actively undermines the campaign narrative; weakens the image of the nominee; does not provide him with a trusted counsellor; and does not anoint an heir apparent. The only reasons to add her would be: for the Clinton “network” and organization, and to win over an otherwise difficult-to-win constituency. I don’t think Obama needs the network or the organization. That leaves one reason.

Obama had trouble, in differing degrees, with four constituencies who were loyal to Clinton in the primaries: women, older voters, Appalachian whites, and Hispanics. I don’t think Clinton helps materially with Hispanics. She could very well help with Appalachian whites, but I don’t think she’s the only pick who could do so. Ditto with older voters. And I remain unconvinced that Obama has a “problem” with women voters in a general election against McCain.

Obama needs a plausible president who can speak to the cares and concerns of ordinary Americans. Somebody people know. Somebody who complements Obama's story nicely, who has a similar message. That person is John Edwards. And I've not exactly been a fan of his historically, but it makes too much sense to me not to pick him. I suppose there's the lack of executive experience--as if McCain can capitalize on that.

The Man, The Myth, The Bio

East Bay, California, United States
Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.