Yeah, so I'm on vacation for a while and I won't be posting much. Every once in a while I'll chime in with something I find interesting.
Lots of discussion these days about why Barack Obama is underperforming the "generic Democrat" in the polls. It seems to me that this gets it right: lots of people identify as Democrats but vote as Republicans, especially in the South. Even in states like Oklahoma and Mississippi registered Democrats form a majority, but these folks vote Republican up and down the ballot. So, sure, these folks might prefer a Democratic president in the abstract, but that president would probably look a lot more like Zell Miller than, well, an actual Democrat.
I'm also not entirely convinced that John Kerry's having led at this point in the 2004 election cycle is in any way compelling. The fundamentals this year are much better for Democrats than Republicans, and Barack Obama is a hell of a politician, while John McCain is a media darling who has never run a tight race, can't deliver a speech and releases some of the oddest ads around. His campaign is substance-free and largely revolves around telling one group of people one thing about his policies (i.e. selling comprehensive immigration reform to business owners, cap-and-trade to stop global warming to the general public) while speaking out the other side of his mouth to other groups ("secure the borders" to the far right, no caps (!) for polluters). He lucked into the GOP nomination, and Obama is light years ahead in organization, money, and enthusiasm.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Bob Dole of 2008!
