I wish I had something really intelligent to say about the fall of David Paterson's approval numbers, but I don't really have anything. It's just a very interesting story, and due in large part to botching the Senate appointment to replace Hillary Clinton. I previously suggested that Sen. Gillibrand would manage to win renomination while Gov. Paterson would not, and the numbers are tentatively showing this.
What is certain at this point is that the Caroline Kennedy fiasco isn't just going to blow over. It's been two months and Paterson is less popular than ever, and deservedly so. Picking Kirsten Gillibrand was a really bad choice, as she wasn't a good fit for the state's politics and it all smacked of excessive political consideration, as though Paterson felt he had to pick a woman and had to pick someone from upstate, ergo Gillibrand. But by picking perhaps the worst choice available (and stringing Kennedy along while slipping nasty information to the press) he managed to alienage, well, everyone, and then followed up by botching his budget. And the Democrats are likely to lose Gillibrand's House seat to boot, so it's a real home run!
I do think that Gillibrand will hold on, but that isn't my preferred outcome. It's not really about guns, as I don't really care about that, but rather that she doesn't really seem to stand for much, and while she was a congressperson she gave into the worst elements of Blue Dogism--triangulation on gay rights and standing behind Bush national security policy, for starters. This sort of thing does not deserve to be rewarded, and the fact that she's already pivoting on these issues (and fully supported the stimulus) suggests someone who is basically admitting that either her old or her new politics are bullshit. Very well. Sometimes you have to settle with that. But you shouldn't among Democratic politicians in New York. There's 29 elected Democratic congresspersons representing the Empire State, not to mention a number of statewide elected officials and private citizens like Kennedy. It's not like this is South Dakota where there's like one Democrat who can plausibly win.
Some time ago, Ross Douthat wrote (about Caroline Kennedy) that Paterson should pick the next Pat Moynihan--i.e. someone who could become a committed, important, influential politician--rather than a centrist hack like Lincoln Chafee. The irony is that Paterson bypassed Kennedy by picking someone whose Chafee-ness is practically off the hook.
