The next McGovern? It ain't Obama.

So the Blue Dog thing sucks. The good news: Sarah Palin looks indeed to be headed toward a McGovern-like defeat if she's the GOP's 2012 nominee. It's 55-35 at this point, and Obama has substantial GOP support.

During the campaign I predicted the basic political contours of America until 2016. You can find the original post if you like, but it went a little something like this:

1. In 2008, Barack Obama wins thanks to the ineptness of the Bush Administration and the McCain campaign, and Democrats gain a bunch more Senate and House seats.
2. Republicans mobilize around defeating Obama but aren't successful. Obama makes great strides on health care, climate change, etc. The economy improves
3. In 2010, Republicans' move to the right gains them a few House seats, mostly from conservative districts like that of retiring Rep. Jim Marshall and Idaho Rep. Walt Minnick. They spin it as a huge victory, even though they don't take enough seats to dent the Dems' advantage and the Republicans drop a few more Senate seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Missouri.
4. The 2010 "victory" leads conservatives into a greater sense of confidence. Sarah Palin wins the 2012 GOP nomination, and picks Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina as her VP nominee (not entirely sure about that, but it will be a DeMint-like conservative). She gets defeated by Obama in a landslide that sees vast swaths of the center-right establishment uniting behind Obama.
5. Conservatives become less powerful in the GOP, reformers rise to the top, and the Republicans' business community begins pressing for some more moderate positions because they're tired of Democrats.
6. The 2016 election is between a Democrat (likely a woman, perhaps freshman Sen. Kay Hagan) and a Republican who is derided by the base as "Democrat-lite" because of his/her moderate economic positions.

I suspect that Evan Bayh's new Blue Dog Senate caucus will make (2) more difficult, though FDR had conservatives in his party too, so I don't think it's impossible. And it does appear that, contra the worries of progressives during the campaign that he'd be too incremental, Obama is very interested in accomplishing great things. But if there's one thing I know for sure it's that Barack Obama is a much, much better politician than Evan Bayh, so I'm not concerned. And this Palin item makes item (4) much more likely.