Evidently there is talk today about Democrats trying to get Arlen Specter to switch parties. I think that is not likely to happen yet. Right now, Specter is one of a handful of the most influential members of the Senate. As one of the very few gettable Republican votes he is in a position to put his imprint all over President Obama's legislation--most likely to water it down, in accordance with the philosophy of "centrists" like Ben Nelson and Sue Collins. Still, he's one of the most crucial members of the Senate right now, and he's going to enjoy it. Why shouldn't he stay on this team?
Well, the answer is that it can't last. Specter is riding high right now, but he's going to be sweating once Pat Toomey decides to enter the 2010 race. Specter shouldn't be under any illusions--Toomey will absolutely crush him in a GOP primary, and once we see polls of Specter vs. Toomey vs. whoever else gets in, we'll see how impossible it is for Specter to hang onto his seat. At this point, Democrats looking to take on a far-right extremist like Toomey will get in line--someone like Congressman Joe Sestak, a retired Navy Admiral, would make for a compelling candidate against Toomey, who is not exactly a good fit for a state that gave Barack Obama an 11 point win in November. At this point, Arlen will either retire, run anyway and lose, or switch parties. Even if he wins he'll be bloodied up, and he will be unlikely to reunite Pennsylvania's GOP behind him in 2010.
So the logical course for Specter, if he wants to continue in office, is to switch parties right before it comes out that he's totally screwed. I doubt there's much the Democrats could do to induce him now, as he'd be giving up quite a bit of power to become a Democrat. I mean, you could offer to reinstall him as Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee (though I wonder whether Pat Leahy would be happy about that) but that power pales in comparison to effectively having veto power over Barack Obama's judges. I really don't think they could give Specter enough to make him come over now. But, eventually, he'll either crawl over or die on the Republican vine.
Oh, and by the way, it would be really stupid if Specter actually remained a Republican and lost brutally. I've heard that he's loyal to his party, and that he doesn't want to leave it. That is all very well and admirable, so long as his party has been loyal to him and trusted him in return. That the exact opposite is true suggests that Specter is either standing on some arcane point of principle or is just delusional. I mean, seriously, after getting excoriated by the right for giving in on the stimulus bill, after having the RNC's dunce-in-chief casually talk about financing a primary opponent, and after (presumably) not getting support from the establishment when the time comes, what reason would he have to remain loyal to traitors? He's going to just sit there and take all this from the Republican establishment and not fight back? If that's the case, then why should Democrats even bother to try to recruit him? Just poke him in the eye and say John Boehner told you to do it.
