Wednesday, June 3, 2009

My guess is that he's telling the truth

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty: "I'm going to do whatever the court says. If the court directs me to sign that certificate, I will."

If one assumes that Pawlenty is to run for president, I see little reason why dragging out the process helps him. Sure, maybe it makes Jon Cornyn and Mitch McConnell happier, but the GOP (wisely) doesn't do superdelegates and if the Republican establishment could still anoint candidates then Mitt Romney would have been the GOP standard-bearer last year. Signing the election certificate might annoy some activists, but this is something of a local story and it's hard to believe that obeying a court order will be seen as disqualifying to most Republicans.

Actually, I think that it's entirely possible that the consequences of not signing the certificate would be far worse. I tend to think that politicians that can't deliver their home state in a national campaign don't really have a prayer. Mitt Romney is sort of a proof of this. He was never really in the game, and aside from maybe siphoning off some Mormon votes in the west and maybe, maybe, in Michigan it was unclear what he was going to bring to the table for the Republicans, electorally. Meanwhile, there were polls that showed Romney losing Oklahoma, nearly tied in Alabama with Obama, etc. Pawlenty's ability to deliver Minnesota--in fact, to help turn around the Midwest in general--have to be among his greatest assets, and he's not going to do it by alienating every Democrat and independent in the state by doing something like this. It's all a numbers game, really.

A broad assessment of Pawlenty as a candidate suggests that he could be competitive--I suspect he could play in Ohio, Indiana, and possibly Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Michigan as well. He'd do well among Southerners. He's the right image for the GOP to cut--younger, more blue collar, evangelical, sane, conservative but with a hint of Sam's Club. The Republicans could do much worse.

The Man, The Myth, The Bio

East Bay, California, United States
Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.