He's being bandied about as a potential RNC Chair or 2012 presidential candidate. I think that he stands a damn good chance of getting either one, if he wants. Democrats are gleeful at the prospect, and with good reason: Gingrich would likely be a disaster, the likes of which haven't been seen by the GOP since George W. Bush or, perhaps, Newt Gingrich.
So, Newt Gingrich's major accomplishments are to win an easily winnable election and welfare reform, which Bill Clinton talked about to a great extent while running for president anyway, and for which the president got more credit anyway. Newt failed to get the Contract with America passed. He pursued the disastrous government shutdown strategy, which led directly to Bill Clinton's reelection. He made a federal case out of the Lewinsky scandal, which only made Bill Clinton more popular and gave the Democrats more seats in Congress. After that, he was ignominously dumped from the Speakership by members of his own party. Of course, he was having an affair while trying to impeach Bill Clinton's sorry ass for the same thing, and he later divorced his wife on her deathbed. He's definitely the change that Republicans need right now.
Then again, one must compliment the man on his sense of timing. At this point, the Republicans are desperate. This loss hit them harder than they expected, and I think there are a few reasons for that. The most significant reason is that the Republicans thought they would win. Despite the odds, despite the economy and Iraq and all of it. They figured they would be running against Hillary Clinton, who would split the electorate down the middle. Clinton, of course, lost, and their usual demonization campaigns failed because they were running against someone who, surprisingly enough, people liked. One by one, all the conservative dogmas fell at the feet of the Obama machine.
So, now that the Republicans are feeling demoralized, who shows up but their beloved white knight, the man who brought them out from the wilderness in the first place? Gingrich can legitimately claim that he's done this before, albeit under very different circumstances. Nowadays, there are no issues where the Republicans have a dominant lead. Even taxes and national security are even up these days, and issues like education and health care are overwhelmingly Democratic issues. To his credit, Newt isn't afraid to offer conservative solutions to these problems. They're ususally awful, but he does address the issues. Unfortunately for Newt, the state of conservative thought is such that he'll have to start completely from scratch, as conservatism's last big and popular idea was welfare reform. Since then it's been a bunch of foul balls: vouchers and social security privatization being the biggest ones.
But this can't help but feel like a Back to the Future-style gambit. For the past few years, Republicans have been talking nonstop about Ronald Reagan, and now they want to relive the glory days of Newt Gingrich? This points to what we have already realized: that the GOP is simply exhausted, that it doesn't want to believe the heady days of Reagan are behind them and be forced to make the sorts of hard reforms it will need to make in order to compete nationally. Indeed, I would not be surprised if the Republican strategy over the next couple of years is to focus almost exclusively on kicking moderate Dems out of the South and replacing them with conservatives. It's a strategy that might net them some seats in the South, but nowhere else, and its enaction at a more mild level it's already lost them the Southwest. Consider this: four years ago, the GOP had majorities in the Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado congressional delegations, and a 3-to-1 advantage in Arizona. All of those states now have majority-Democratic delegations. And while the rightward shift might well get the Republicans more Southern seats, it would make the party even more toxic elsewhere. We might well see a Solid Southwest that is as universally Democratic as the South used to be. Certainly, there is a Solid Northeast in play at the Congressional level, and the West Coast is looking more daunting than ever for the Republicans. In fact, virtually everywhere is looking more daunting for the Republicans: Barack Obama won the blue states by huge margins, and he won the Western states of Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico decisively. If he consolidates those states at their present levels of support, the presidency is simply out of reach for Republicans unless they are able to appeal to Democrats and independents.
Is Newt Gingrich the man for this job? I seriously doubt it, so as a partisan I welcome his elevation.
