Monday, November 3, 2008

My predictions



I think Obama is going to win with 378 electoral votes. Basically, I think Obama will sweep the swing states over at Pollster.com, with the most iffy states being Indiana and Missouri. I suspect Ohio and Florida will follow national trends--Ohio will be fairly decisively for Obama, Florida will be close, but Obama will win both. The big surprises will be North Dakota, Indiana and North Carolina, of course. Georgia and Montana might well flip, but I've yet to see Obama winning in a creditable poll of those states. They might just flip, though. North Dakota, Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana are all shaky, but I think Obama is favored in all of them.

In terms of the Senate, the Dems will get 59 seats counting Lieberman. All the usual suspects, plus Al Franken. I don't think the Democrats are going to win in MS, KY or GA, though the latter is the most likely, and would be the most satisfying for Dems who remember Saxby Chambliss's campaign against Max Cleland (and Daniel Larison).

House races are complicated, but I think somewhere upwards of 30 more seats, with Marilyn Musgrave and Michele Bachmann being ousted. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it will be closer to 50 seats than 30, just due to so many "safe" races not having been polled where disgusted voters might oust their incumbents. If the Dems get something close to 290, the GOP will become almost totally irrelevant to the proceedings of the next few years.
Posted by at

The Man, The Myth, The Bio

East Bay, California, United States
Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.