I know that a lot of you, like me, were greatly saddened to hear that Proposition 8, the California Initiative to ban gay marriage, narrowly passed. But, while those of us who favor equality have lost the battle, it is clear that the idea of equality is winning the war.
How could this have happened? I'm sure that you are asking, as am I. After all, polls during the summer showed Prop 8 losing in a landslide. As I see it, there were two major dynamics at play. The first, of course, was the effective and unbelievably deceptive campaign in favor of Prop 8. Usually, politicians will distort the truth--that's how a vote against a pork-laden defense bill full of $500 ashtrays becomes a vote to defund the troops. It might be true from a certain perspective, but it doesn't tell the whole story. But the Prop 8 advocates, on the other hand, invented a whole load of crap about teaching gay marriage in schools, forcing churches to perform marriages, etc. Untrue, paranoid, and unsupported by the evidence, as Massachusetts has had marriage equality for about four years now and none of that stuff has happened.
This, however, might not have mattered as much as the second cause. I think it's wonderful that America has just elected a black president, and I have been a supporter of President-elect Obama's (how awesome it is to write that!) since he announced his candidacy in February 2007. I think electing a black man is a wonderful statement of why America is different, and a lot of blacks feel the same way. Unfortunately, they voted nearly 2-to-1 in favor of Prop 8, and the elevated turnout that Obama caused among black voters might well have been the single most important element in Prop 8's success. One must appreciate the irony, as Barack Obama is the most progressive president we've had since Lyndon Johnson, and yet his election has led directly to a profoundly regressive result here in California.
This has been a tough loss, but I think it has been an instructive one. We now know that the LDS Church, far from being a quirky, conservative institution that stays out of politics, is actually part of the Robertson-Falwell-Dobson axis of intolerance. We now know that we can't take anything for granted in this struggle. And we now know who our real friends are. Perhaps the most resounding lesson of this election is that advocates of same-sex marriage now know that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is no friend of ours. Despite years as a self-styled equality advocate, he vetoed two separate bills to legalize gay marriage, preferring to let the courts weigh in on the matter. They weighed in on the side of equality, and Schwarzenegger said he disagreed and that he would campaign against Prop 8. He did no such thing, instead heading over to Ohio to campaign for John McCain. He didn't lift a finger to help us, and we equality types now know that he's little more than a typical politician trying to be all things to all people. (Some might lay blame on Barack Obama for not speaking out against Prop 8 more. Let's not forget that Obama has never professed support for same-sex marriage as Arnold did, and that he actually did oppose Prop 8 as discriminatory and reiterated that support on MTV the weekend before the election. I'd say he overdelivered on expectations.)
And, while one can lay the blame at unscrupulous Prop 8 supporters, the truth is that the pro-equality side got lazy. We assumed it was in the bag, and so did the people running the No on 8 campaign. Things improved over the past two weeks, but it wasn't enough to offset the damage done by Gavin Newsom (has there been a better friend to anti-equality types?). We can place the blame on others, but some lies with ourselves as well.
So, that's how we got here. I was upset when I heard that Prop 8 passed, but I'm feeling much better now. I don't feel like the hours I volunteered to this effort or the money I donated were wasted at all. And there's actually much to be hopeful for in the future. Let's look at it this way: in 2000, a same-sex marriage ban passed with 60% of the vote. This year it only got 52%. That means that, in eight years, the anti-equality folks lost 8% of the vote, or about 1% per year. This is, no doubt, the confluence of older voters (who generally oppose equality) dying off while younger and more tolerant voters enter the scene, as well as changes of heart. If these trends continue, then in two years a similar proposition would be neck-and-neck and in four years it would lose by the same margin by which Prop 8 won this year. These are, of course, conservative estimates, and I wonder whether equality could pass in 2010 when Barack Obama will not be on the ballot. Progress occurs slowly. I was hoping this would be one of those times where there was a sudden burst of change, but it turned out to be too soon. Nevertheless, the trends are clear: while we have lost this battle (and we will lose some battles) we are winning this war. Anyone who really thinks that marriage equality is gone from California forever needs to remember those two numbers: 60% and 52%. At this point, we are winning the war, and the only way to lose it is to lose faith, to give up, and to throw up our hands and cluck our tongues at bigotry without trying to persuade others that we're right. And I think we have some pretty strong arguments going for us.
I think that this loss could actually be a good thing , because it is a wake-up call for those of us who thought it would be easy. What it means is that those of us who truly believe in this cause need to get off the sidelines. We need to be persuading others, and giving our time and money to the cause. It's going to be a hard fight, but I know that I have some fight left in me. Let's get real, and let's get back in the ring. We can do this if we want to. As Andrew Sullivan is fond of saying, know hope.
