Before the election, just 41 percent of weekly church attendees backed Obama, compared with 61 percent of infrequent attendees. Now, 57 percent of weekly churchgoers say they approve of Obama’s job performance, compared with 69 percent of infrequent churchgoers.
Dave Weigel attributes this to the pro-lifers being far, far more extreme than anything done by Obama. This is correct, and Obama has also largely been silent on social issues, which also helps. This is a smart move, and building up a broad base of support and trust might well help when Obama decides it's time to end Don't Ask, Don't Tell.
I, however, tend to think that the trend is occurring because churchgoers aren't the monomaniacal culture warriors that both sides of the political spectrum seem to believe they are. I've been going to church regularly most of my life, and I've attended many of them. I've actually encountered very few churches that were aggressively culture war oriented--only one or two that I can think of that regularly spoke about topics like homosexuality, for example--and I've encountered very few churchgoing individuals who are the stereotypical ultra-right, closed-minded, Quiverfull types. Now, this is not to say that there aren't lots of people like that, and I've known a few. In general, though, most Protestants I've known tend to be conservative-minded, though more in the sense of favoring tradition and reverence instead of Tea Party-ish. Most Catholics I've known have tended to be economically populist and socially conservative, winding up somewhere between the two parties. And most people I've known of other denominations or religions tend to be liberal as a matter of course.
The reason why conservatives have tended to do well among churchgoers is because, historically, they have tended to encourage the sort of traditionalism and reverence that most Protestants cherish (think Reagan or W. Bush), while splitting Catholics along the lines of traditionalist vs. reformist. Churchgoers were never down-the-line Republicans so much as that the GOP seemed to be the only game in town: Democrats often seemed to be timid on speaking about the family when they weren't snarking about it, a la Hillary Clinton in 1992, and despite his professions of piety Bill Clinton never really came across as a reverent traditionalist, in large part because he really wasn't one. It was a question of policy to some degree, but conservatives have tended to have a knack for hitting even moderate churchgoers in the sweet spots on a deeper and intuitive level--or, at least, they used to. I think that the more recent shift of conservative rhetoric in a more trashy, abrasive, shouty and angry direction cannot help but be alienating to, say, young churchgoing Protestant parents who want their children to share their values. Obviously that sort of approach has found a lot of supporters, and a lot of Republicans really like it. But it is an interesting twist that it is Barack Obama whose piety, strength, warmth and actual lived social conservatism is more in line with the mindset of most religious people in this country, even if they disagree on many of the particulars of his social views. Viewed in this light, the religious trend toward him makes some sense. And it might even come to pass that more religious folks who like Obama now might take a look at Obama, take a look at the faces representing the anti-gay movement, and decide to trust the President on some of these matters over a beauty pageant queen (I am aware that Obama's not for gay marriage, at least, not openly). I really don't think the right realizes what's going on here, and it's a subtle development and not a large story at this point, but it could wind up being quite a big deal. I can tell you that most religious folks I know aren't keen to tune into Sean Hannity's show to watch the dumbest conservative pundit interview the Kardashian family, perhaps the trashiest and dumbest "reality" family out there. If the right wants to play it this way, they might well come to discover that their base is a lot smaller than they thought it was.
