Thursday, February 14, 2008

The exodus begins? Plus the Edwards endorsement

One of Hillary's superdelegates bolts to Obama.

For some reason surpassing human comprehension, the media keeps playing up John Edwards's possible endorsement. Evidently, he might be leaning toward Clinton, but maybe not. I don't think he's likely to endorse her--he probably just wants to make it seem like a bigger story when he endorses Obama. He's shown a greater proclivity to help Obama in the past, and since I don't think HRC would offer him anything it doesn't really make sense politically.

In a greater sense, however, I find it hard to shake the belief that this endorsement is largely irrelevant. Had Edwards endorsed immediately upon exiting the race, he might (might!) have been able to divert his supporters into either the Clinton camp or the Obama camp. But, for whatever reason, he chose not to do so. It doesn't really make much sense to me unless Edwards is trying to keep his moment in the limelight from ending quite so quickly. Now that Edwards's supporters have migrated to the two remaining candidates, it seems unlikely that Edwards will be able to persuade the ones who went to the one he didn't choose to go to the one he did, especially if he keeps talking about how much he likes them both, how hard a decision it is, etc. Why would an ex-Edwards now-Clinton supporter switch sides because John Edwards says that he prefers Obama but still likes Clinton a lot? It's hardly a persuasive argument.

In essence, Edwards had a chance to impact the race, but he lost it because he wanted desperately to keep his candle burning a little longer. If I had to speculate, I would guess that even though Edwards's moment really has come and gone, he is probably not done running for things. He just likes the attention, and I can see a sort of Senator Moonbat thing happening in the future: he just seems like the sort of personality that would keep running for president with ever-diminishing returns. I could be wrong: who knows? I'm not a huge fan--I think he's a bit annoying, personally, and Wonkette aptly described his voice as a cross between Al Gore and Kermit the Frong. As for the present, his endorsement will have no effect on the race, as both sides have some former Edwards supporters and both sides have some progressive champions. Now, if Al Gore were to endorse someone--well, that would be far more significant. I don't think he will, because he really doesn't have anything to gain from doing it and he has a lot to lose if he picks the wrong pony.

The Man, The Myth, The Bio

East Bay, California, United States
Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.