Here's something from the Los Angeles Times that shows how the primaries broke down geographically. It looks like Obama is very strong in the Plains, the Midwest, and the Deep South, plus a bit of strength in the Northeast. It is interesting to me that the "narrative" of Obama's support tends to be off: sure, he's very strong among Black voters, particularly in the Deep South, and has problems connecting with Whites in the South -- which can be seen in Clinton's big victories in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma, states with smaller Black populations. So, the polarization can be seen there a bit. On the other hand, he destroyed Hillary in a whole mess of states where there isn't much diversity at all, as can be seen in the picture. And Missouri is a bit of a surprise, frankly -- did Claire McCaskill's endorsement make a difference? -- but so far Obama has won the all four primary contests held in the Midwest (Missouri, Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa) and the latter three by wide margins (not counting Michigan, of course, since he wasn't on the ballot.) It bodes well for him with the upcoming Wisconsin and Ohio primaries, no? Indiana should be fertile ground as well, though that's far off at this point. And if the trends hold Obama should be able to walk away with the remaining plains primaries. So, if Obama manages to sweep through the Plains primaries, the Midwest, the rest of the Deep South (Texas will be tough, North Carolina ought to be more favorable, especially with a potential John Edwards endorsement?), and is able to pick off some more states in the Northeast and maybe Washington State -- he's got a pretty good chance of coming into Denver with a delegate lead. At this point, I'd say that Hillary has an advantage in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Vermont, Kentucky, Texas and Oregon. The media is saying that the contest is about to get negative -- I'm not sure that's right, on the basis that the media has been wrong about pretty much everything this election cycle. Every time Hillary has really tried to go after Obama it's fallen flat or backfired, and Obama's numbers have only risen. Had Hillary kept Bill on the offensive (pun intended) and continued bringing up Obama and Rezko, etc., after South Carolina my guess is that she would have probably done far worse than she did yesterday. I guess the trajectory of her future campaign depends on how she sees her performance last night. One possibility is that she sees Super Tuesday as a victory, as a hard-won fight in which she managed to break Obama's momentum and win over blue state Democrats in big numbers, finishing with an advantage in the popular vote. If that's what she thinks, then she'll probably stick with the positive, issues-focused campaign that she's been running. The other possibility, of course, is that she interprets Super Tuesday as a night when she lost nearly 2/3 of the contests, lost most of the delegates, and lost a number of primaries which heavily favored her by huge margins. None of this was supposed to happen. This is not to mention that Obama has caught her in the national polls. If she starts to get worried that Obamentum is unstoppable, she might try to tear him down, on the logic that she has no other choice. To some extent, it depends on how the press reacts, and it seems like they're generally calling it a tie, or a slight Obama victory, which it probably is. But if Obama manages to win Washington, Louisiana, and Nebraska on Saturday, she would be right to feel threatened.
On the Republican side it broke down pretty simply. Huckabee got everything in the South, Romney won the Plains and Rocky Mountain States, and McCain won all the states that mattered. It's more or less official: McCain will be the GOP nominee. I'm not sure why conservative elites are treating this as a disaster rather than as an opportunity. I understand that the elites hate him for a variety of reasons, but the rank and file seem to like him, and going on a jihad against someone your flock likes seems like a losing proposition for you. Right now McCain could really use some establishment support, and Bob Dole ain't gonna hack it. I realize that the elites (rightfully) realize that McCain would rely on them far less heavily than Bush does, but if I were an influential conservative elite. I would figure that getting on board the Straight Talk Express now would be a good move. For one, going with McCain when everyone else is moving the other way would make me stand out. I'd be on the right side of GOP sentiment, and I'd be able to help burnish McCain's conservatism while he'd be indebted to me. The other conservative elites would probably despise me, but they'd be on the outside looking in while I'd be tight with President McCain. The net result would be an enhancement in my own power and influence with McCain and the conservative public, and I'd only have to give up the estimation of a bunch of paper tiger blowhards like Rush Limbaugh. Seems like a good trade.
