Ross Douthat (and others) discuss Barack Obama's potential weakness among self-identified Democrats. I'm not sure I agree. He attracts fewer Democrats now, but I find it likely they'll return home before the general election. Elderly voters might have some affection for John McCain, but he seems to have the sorts of ideas about elderly entitlements (privatizing social security) that might make the elderly think twice. And I'm not convinced I should worry about a few ultra-conservative-on-Israel Jews defecting to McCain. Most Democrats (and most Jews) seem to recognize that a sensible Israel policy need not include fighting quixotic wars against Israel's enemies. The ones that disagree belong in the GOP anyway, as they're the party of that stuff these days.
I suppose I'm not too worried about this phenomenon because it seems to happen and it seems to happen among Democrats more than Republicans. In 2000, Bradley supporters claimed they would never vote for Gore. They wound up, largely, voting for Gore. In 2004 (and I recall this clearly) there were many Deaniacs who insisted they would never, never, vote for that sellout John Kerry. They voted for Kerry. Now, admittedly, having a faux-moderate that a lot of Democrats kind of like as an option against Obama might siphon off a few more fence-sitting Democrats than one might otherwise see happen, but in the end I find this argument to be not entirely convincing. I could, of course, be wrong. We'll just have to see.
