Ezra Klein looks at McCain's favorable poll numbers and concludes that he's going to be tough to beat. I'm a bit more optimistic. The major issue at hand is that John McCain's love among moderates and liberals is that they think that he secretly sympathizes with them. He did work to cultivate an image as being working with Democrats when they're right, and trying to lead his party to the sensible center on some issues. That's why a lot of people like the old guy, and not entirely without reason.
Ultimately, though, John McCain's embrace of the right will no doubt harm him with these groups, who will probably finally put it together that he isn't really one of them, and his hagiographical press coverage has made the public quite unaware of his stances on many issues, as well as the personal baggage he carries. In essence, most of the people who dislike McCain already aren't likely to change their minds, while the McCain fans will no doubt be presented with some new evidence to test their affection for him. The same might very well be true of Barack Obama, but Obama doesn't really have any damning stuff in his back yard that falls into the "secret to everyone" camp--unless anyone really thinks that all this Rezko business is really going to catch on after about fifty failed attempts.
All of which is not to say that I think there's no chance that John McCain will wind up winning in November--though most polls seem to give Obama the advantage for now--but McCain's "experience" argument is naturally going to involve more stories about the Keating Five, Vicki Iseman, etc. If he's running on his record, it's inevitable, because that stuff is his record. And his record is not hagiographical. That's why the Iseman stories from last week were such big news--the media has done such a thorough job of portraying John McCain as a man without warts that any story that shows a few is going to have a rather hefty impact.
Additionally, one also wonders if his shooting-from-the-hip style is going to get him in trouble at some point, which is more than just possible, I think.
