Monday, February 25, 2008

The Smart Money

This is this cycle's electoral map, according to political betting. Not sure how likely Kansas is to flip, but the last time a Democrat had a "good" showing in the Sunflower State was in 1988, when Michael Dukakis got 42% of the vote there. That's an 18-point loss, and that was a miracle by Kansas Democratic standards! And that's the best the Democrats have done there since LBJ in '64. Needless to say, if McCain can't carry Kansas convincingly, it's a sign that he's probably weaker than is generally thought. What's next, a poll showing Nebraska is competitive? Wyoming? Idaho? I have yet to see a single blue state that could flip and turn red, but I like the idea of the Republicans having to ask what the matter is with Kansas this time.

That map is striking, to be sure. If the money does what it does, the Democrats will get at least 293 electoral votes, not counting Nevada, Virginia, and Florida, which are quite close. I'm not sure how this will turn out, but I'm optimistic.
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The Man, The Myth, The Bio

East Bay, California, United States
Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.