Yeah. I was about 75% sure from the announcement onward that Jeb wouldn't actually run for the Florida Senate seat. The most surprising thing is that Bush didn't drag it out for a few months, form an exploratory committee, try to milk it while staying in the limelight before deciding not to run. Is it possible that he wants to give the Bush name a little time to air out (so to speak)? I figured he was going to feign interest to keep his nemesis and successor, Gov. Charlie Crist, from running for the seat. I can't imagine why he would--Crist is a popular first-term governor in a very important and big state. He might well have presidential ambitions--ambitions that would be better served by running in 2012 as a sitting governor, or better yet in 2016 as a former governor, so as to have no distractions during the run. In any event, I don't think a move to the Senate helps Crist in any way, and it adds in a lot more plane travel and boring meetings instead of, you know, running something.
I think it might be the airing out thing. Plus, it's not necessary. If Jeb wanted to run for President in 2012, he's a former two-term governor from a key swing state. I don't think he lacks seasoning. Plus, spending another two years campaigning and raising money for a job that would be a springboard to a national nomination he'd win hands down anyway? Don't make sense. The Bushes just aren't Senate types, anyway.
As for Crist, he's by far the GOP's best shot at taking back the White House in 2016. Crist is in a position to actually bring the GOP back to something resembling constitutional conservatism, which is something he really believes in. He's very much opposed to disenfranchisement with respect to voting, and that would be a good first step if the GOP wants to pick up culturally conservative black voters. Crist is phenomenally popular in Florida, and he's conservative generally but he knows how to bring people together and to give a little something to Democrats now and then. Plus, he's sort of a good politician. I think the GOP could do a lot worse...and likely will.
The Man, The Myth, The Bio
- East Bay, California, United States
- Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.