The way I figure it, May 20 is when it goes from being virtually impossible for Clinton to win among pledged delegates to it being mathematically impossible. After that, winning 100% in the remaining states won't allow Clinton to catch up with pledged delegates. And the odds that the superdelegates will actually overturn Obama's nomination are about as close to nil as one can get. We hear a lot about Obama's supposed weakness among working-class whites, but that's nothing compared to Clinton's corresponding weakness among Black voters. She can only manage single digits among the most reliably Democratic group there is, while Obama managed about 40% of the White working-class vote in Indiana today. Republicans usually win the latter bloc anyway, while Democrats cannot afford to lose the former.
Now, of course, the logic is flawed: just because Blacks support Obama doesn't mean they wouldn't vote for Clinton in the general. Why shouldn't the reciprocal argument hold true for Obama and the working class? It seems like he's off to a better start, and he will be facing J. McCain in November, whose platform can aptly be summarized as "please, various warring Republican factions, don't hit me!" Now, if McCain were more charismatic, more trusted by GOP elites, more loved by the base than tolerated, and more, well, interested in charting a new course for the Republican party things would be different. But, of course, in that case things would be different. In any event, this is beside the point...
I'm definitely looking forward to this being over, and the end is closer now than ever before. I'm excited!
