Friday, March 14, 2008

Clinton 2012 is not happening

I keep reading, from some people, that the real reason that Hillary Clinton is staying in the race is to kneecap Obama so that he loses to John McCain this year, thus allowing Clinton a shot at the nomination in 2012. I'm not very charitable to Mrs. Clinton, generally, but this seems rather ridiculous on its face. Think about it: if Clinton grinds Obama down to a pulp, and if he loses to McCain, and if that loss is attributed to HRC's activities, then the Clinton name will be like mud in Democratic circles. Now, of course, if she can kneecap Obama without seeming to draw such attention such rumors might be a bit more justified, but regardless of how it turns out it is difficult to argue that the Clinton approach to wrecking Obama's nomination has been subtle. Would such a perception be likely to come to pass? Well, considering that the Clintons' love in the Democratic Party is shrinking, I suspect that they'd be the scapegoats for an Obama loss regardless of circumstance, fair or not.

In any event, I don't think the Clintons are thinking that far ahead. Their mentality seems to be something along the lines of, "We'll win this thing come hell or high water and worry about the fallout afterward." That's not really a long-term mentality, or even a medium-term one. Clinton can't get elected president at this point--she can't win the Dem nomination without doing any number of things that too much of the Democratic base would find distasteful. Dropping out earlier and supporting Obama might have built up some goodwill among Obama supporters, maybe enough to ensure a slot on the ticket, certainly enough to insure serious influence with a prospective Obama Administration. But she didn't do the rational thing--instead, she's acting as though she has to fulfill her own self-mythology and become a shining example to women everywhere, or something. Now Obama is going to win and she's not going to get anything. Game theory does not seem to be her strong point. The one thing I've always said about the Clintons is that they're not big picture types--no grand vision, no bold principles or ideas, just the next election. Clinton's myopia and lack of imagination kept her from heavy influence with Obama--she might have been VP or Chief of Staff or something. Now, she'll be lucky to get a Supreme Court seat. And given how she's conducted herself I'm not a bit sorry for how things have turned out.

The Man, The Myth, The Bio

East Bay, California, United States
Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.