Scary, yes. But less likely if she wins this year. Despite the odds of McCain dying in office being higher than those for Obama, they're still pretty low. I doubt McCain will want to just serve one term. I bet he'll run for president in 2012, though I can't imagine any scenario where a McCain administration--with immigration reform as one of its top priorities--doesn't split the GOP in two. So that makes it likely that, should McCain win in 2008, Palin would run for president in 2016 as a non-incumbent standard-bearer of a split party.
Obviously, there are so many variables unconsidered that this is a bit silly. But consider this Obama victory scenario: Palin could run in 2012 if she wanted to. It could be 2016 if Obama was a reasonably successful president. Voters don't like one party being in power for too long. Obama might well be followed by Palin as president, and she wouldn't have inexperience to keep her down. And she'll probably run the same kind of campaign as George W. Bush did in 2000--moderate seeming and reformist. And, based on what we know, it would probably turn out much like Bush's. Watch out, fellow libs.
The Man, The Myth, The Bio
- East Bay, California, United States
- Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.