A new Hays Research poll from Alaska has Gov. Sarah Palin’s (R) popularity falling precipitously from the mid-80s to only 54 percent, with 42 percent of Alaskans saying they have a “negative” view of her.Some popularity drop-off isn’t uncommon right now, as states battle with their budgets, but Palin has really not adjusted well to her new role as a national figure from an obscure state.
Well, it turns out that Alaska voters haven't quite had a rapturous reaction to Palin's national bid, the Levi Johnston soap opera, the games with legislative Democrats about appointing a handpicked crony to replace a Dem Senator, picking an AG who sympathized with marital rape and the KKK, etc. Good for them.
Conservatives who think that Sarah Palin is the future of the GOP need to take stock here. If she loses a statewide race I find it hard to believe that she would be in a strong position to make a national race. It's not impossible: both Lincoln and Nixon did it, but Mrs. Palin, with all due respect, you're not quite that caliber a politician (though the Nixon comparison fits in other ways). I think the Democrats have a pretty good shot of reclaiming the governorship: they could run former governor Tony Knowles, who got beaten by Palin last time around and might want a rematch, though I suspect that Knowles is a spent quantity in the state after losing two consecutive statewide races. More interesting is Ethan Berkowitz, who took on congressional titan Don Young last year and made it a very competitive race. Now that he has some statewide recognition and support he might be a more viable candidate. Losing the governor's race would finish Palin in politics.
Finally, I tend to think that conservatives using Palin as Example A of media malfeasance is a little overblown. I'll admit that some of the tabloidy elements that came out right when she was picked were excessive and nasty, though I might argue that they were used deftly by Palin's handlers at the time. Did she really lose support from the revelations about her pregnant daughter? Not really, according to the polls. And it's not like she didn't use her family as one of the arguments for her candidacy. Complaining about this sort of thing is sort of like live giving you lemons, then making lemonade, then complaining about getting lemons instead of strawberries. Weird. Far more damning was the McCain team's Embarracuda media strategy, which was validated when Palin actually opened her mouth to Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric and couldn't answer even the most fundamental questions about public policy. And it was sealed when Joe Biden wiped the floor with her in the debate, in which Biden managed to seem more intelligent, more gracious, and more human than Palin, who was supposedly gifted with those sorts of personal qualities.
Sarah Palin is, and always has been, a lemon. A jaloppy, if you will. It's hard to understand the woman's popularity with conservatives, and it can only be interpreted as a sign that either the conservative base doesn't know much about public policy or that they don't care. After all, Palin supported McCain's position on immigration. She supported the bank bailout. She supported a windfall profits tax on oil companies in Alaska. More and more it strikes me that Republicans don't see politics as a way of improving the nation so much as a contest as to which of the two "teams" is cooler.
