"For what it's worth, my sense is that Obama isn't much concerned about Iran, is more or less sympathetic to Iran's view that if Israel can have nuclear weapons, it can too, wouldn't particularly mind if Iran carried out Ahmadinejad's oft-repeated threat to "wipe Israel off the map," and has no intention of doing anything controversial in the Middle East that could derail his domestic agenda,"- John Hinderaker, via SullivanI can't testify to what Obama is thinking about Iran, but this is clearly a very stupid thing to say. Threats are not the same as intentions, nor as actions. If I had a nickel for every time a right-winger talked about what bad people terrorists are, or how nasty the things they say are, I'm sure I'd be richer than Warren Buffett. That isn't why we're fighting them--we're fighting them to keep from killing us! That's their crime! What matters is not whether a threat is disgusting or frequently repeated so much as whether there is an intention to carry it out. And I think it's safe to say that this particular threat is minimal. As Jeff Goldberg explains:
In other words, Israel is less worried about being annhilated and more worried about a shift in the balance of power. I don't think we should discount this element--I don't like a more regionally powerful Iran myself--but the "existential threat" part of the narrative is overplayed. Israel is a very small country, and one nuclear bomb could probably incinerate most of it. However, the blast would also incinerate millions of Palestinians, as well as the Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem. I suspect that there would be little stomach for this in the Arab world, though fantastical neocons seem to think that anyone who talks shit about America or Israel has done enough to deserve a nuking merely illustrate the lack of a moral compass on that segment of the right.Mr. Netanyahu doesn’t believe that Iran would necessarily launch a nuclear-tipped missile at Tel Aviv. He argues instead that Iran could bring about the eventual end of Israel simply by possessing such weaponry. “Iran’s militant proxies would be able to fire rockets and engage in other terror activities while enjoying a nuclear umbrella,” he said. This could lead to the depopulation of the Negev and the Galilee, both of which have already endured sustained rocket attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah.
More broadly, he said, a nuclear Iran “would embolden Islamic militants far and wide, on many continents, who would believe that this is a providential sign, that this fanaticism is on the ultimate road to triumph.”
I've long maintained that the right's tendency toward neoconservatism and saber-rattling is fundamentally an expression of an insecurity about America. A strong, self-confident America wouldn't give two shits about what tinpot dictators have to say about us. It's the insecure folks who see any challenge toward America's goodness as aggression that CANNOT STAND. The correct response to Ahmadinejad's threats ought to be derision and mockery, coupled with an under-the-table effort to buy the clerics off. It's what we've been doing for sixty damn years and it has a pretty good track record. Iran wants power, and a good chunk of foreign aid money to pay for better education and infrastructure will increase their economic power, so everyone would win. Problem solved. I suspect that Iran is occupying a fair amount of Obama's time these days, though Obama's troubles with Bibi Netanyahu are largely due to him being a posturing goon who seems to think that the Palestinian problem will solve itself, and is expanding illegal settlements while disowning the only viable path toward peace, the two-state solution. This concerns me because Palestinians are going to outnumber Israelis within a generation or two, and absent effective handling of this conflict Israel as we know it will cease to exist--either it will become a multinational state or it won't be able to hold back the stateless attackers. Netanyahu's attitude seems to be that he's more or less done with the Palestinians, and this sort of attitude will ultimately do more to destroy Israel than that bearded shmuck from Iran can ever imagine.
