Monday, October 20, 2008

McCain is giving up on Colorado

And focusing on Pennsylvania instead, hoping to flip it despite Obama's double-digit lead. Chotiner is quizzical about this move, but it makes perfect sense to me. Yes, on the surface, concentrating all your firepower on a state where you have two weeks to overcome a double-digit deficit, and particularly a state which hasn't gone Republican in twenty years, might seem like a really bad idea. Then again, if you make the assumption that Pennsylvania is a blue state that has its share of racial hangups--it helps that it's one of the demographically oldest states in the nation--and you intend to unleash an onslaught of Jeremiah Wright ads during the final stretch of the campaign, it actually makes a great deal of sense. And, realistically, it's one of the only Democratic states in which this would work, the only other conceivable one being Michigan, which the McCain campaign pulled out of not so long ago. Plus, this plan (if it works) has the advantage of allowing the GOP to also lose Virginia, as seems quite likely now.

I think it's pretty apparent that this plan has some deficiencies. For one, it's predicated upon the notion that a good chunk of Pennsylvanians are closet racists who won't follow through on their intention to vote for Obama once the dog whistle has been blown. But let's assume that it works, and that McCain manages to win Pennsylvania, while Obama wins all the other Kerry and Gore states while also picking up Colorado and Virginia. He's got healthy leads in all these states. Even if McCain's dream scenario were to come to pass, he'd still have to win Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida. This doesn't even mention second-tier states, like North Dakota and Montana that might well also be competitive, as well as Georgia, West Virginia, and Arkansas. Obama will not win all of these states. But he only has to win one, any one (aside from Arkansas, North Dakota and Montana).

So, in essence, strap yourself in for some Jeremiah Wright goodness. It'll be coming to a TV near you soon.

The Man, The Myth, The Bio

East Bay, California, United States
Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.