So, Nate Silver's 538 website is giving Obama about an 83% chance to win, going strictly by the statistics. But 270towin has a feature where you can plug in your own electoral combinations and it will tell you the odds. If you start with their default swing state view and add Michigan--a state McCain is no longer contesting, McCain's odds of winning the election drop to below 1%. And that doesn't even assume Obama wins New Hampshire. I tend to trust Nate, but it seems to me that Obama winning all the Gore states (as he's doing now) and having about a half dozen plausible win states in addition makes it difficult to see how McCain pulls it out.