Tuesday, October 21, 2008

A Powell boost?

So, the Very Respectable People in the media have seen fit to say that the presidential race is tightening. And, for a little while, that looked to be the case. But now:

Obama is ahead 50.5%-43.1%, a lead of 7.4 points, compared to the 50.5%-43.7% Obama lead from yesterday...

Yes. While some of the state polls are not as favorable to Obama (I don't trust any of the polling coming out of Ohio these days, although I think Obama has an uphill climb there) I wonder if Colin Powell didn't help Obama out just a bit. The conventional wisdom was that he wouldn't, but there was a tightening for a few days, until the Powell endorsement began to sink in. Plus, Obama's leaving the campaign trail has given the media something to talk about, mostly by playing up his roots and blunting the radical black socialist attack. Obviously, it's a little bit callous to play politics about something so personal, and I wish his grandmother all the best. But it isn't bad optics, as a sort of lemons-int0-lemonade sort of thing.

As for the state polls, it doesn't appear that Obama is losing support so much as McCain has been gaining it, no doubt from disillusioned Republicans finally getting on board. Just check out pollster.com, which illustrates the trend clearly. In any event, a tie in Ohio and Florida probably goes to Obama, who has been more serious about ground game all along.

The Man, The Myth, The Bio

East Bay, California, United States
Problem: I have lots of opinions on politics and culture that I need to vent. If I do not do this I will wind up muttering to myself, and that's only like one or two steps away from being a hobo. Solution: I write two blogs. A political blog that has some evident sympathies (pro-Obama, mostly liberal though I dissent on some issues, like guns and trade) and a culture blog that does, well, cultural essays in a more long-form manner. My particular thing is taking overrated things (movies, mostly, but other things too) down a peg and putting underrated things up a peg. I'm sort of the court of last resort, and I tend to focus on more obscure cultural phenomena.