I still think Palin likely to get the nod in 2012. The polls on this question are not good for her at this point, but Barack Obama managed an insurgency, didn't he? Of course, Palin is not nearly as talented or smart a politician as Obama, but I think circumstances will make it likely. I saw this Matt Yglesias piece on Bobby Jindal getting the GOP nod in four years, and I disagree.
It really does depend on what happens in the next four years, but let me advance my theory:
1) Right now, there are only three Republican pickups of Democratic seats in the House (according to Sabato, as well as others): those would be the seats of Nick Lampson, Paul Kanjorski, and Tim Mahoney. Lampson won because of Tom DeLay’s corruption, and the GOP getting the seat back will be seen as a regression to the mean. Mahoney was felled by a sex scandal, and it’s basically blind luck for the GOP there.
2) Kanjorski is losing to Lou Barletta, who is one of the most overt anti-immigrant voices in the GOP these days.
3) If Barletta wins, the GOP will take note. They will figure that ultra-xenophobia is the way to go, since that’s the only thing that won something for them this year, and John McCain losing handily to Barack Obama will be seen as a sign that they weren’t anti-immigrant enough.
4) This kills a Jindal 2012 candidacy in the crib. It also makes Huck less likely because of his past on the issue, and I seriously doubt that Mitt Romney will win the nomination. This leaves Sarah Palin. Plus, if you read Larison you know that conservatives like to style themselves as the real egalitarians. Picking the first female presidential candidate will appeal to them. The fact that the GOP will lose in a landslide not seen since the likes of McGovern won’t matter to them.
Of course, one should never doubt the Republican capacity for hypocrisy: maybe they run against immigrants in general but not against this immigrant (technically, the son of immigrants). That's perhaps the strongest rationale for a Jindal candidacy, and the Republicans all eventually fall in line. And having an Indian guy calling for immigration restriction would perhaps insulate charges of racism or xenophobia. These are all possibilities. I rather think that Jindal will realize that the timing just isn't right for 2012, and will bide his time until 2016, when the Republicans are ready to try something new. Jindal would be a good visual representation of such a change. I still think, in my gut, that it's gonna be Palin. She is next in line, after all...
